World Cup 2026 · Office Pool
The pool
vs reality
After 29 games and 97 players — Matchday 1 complete, five games into Matchday 2.
What the pool predicted
What actually happened
The big picture
We love a favourite.
They don't love us back.
Pool backed the fav
79%
Fav actually won
55%
On average 79% of the pool backed the favourite each game — but the favourite only won 55% of the time. A 24-point gap, mostly paid for in draws.
Scoreline vs reality
Pool's favourite pick vs most common actual result
Pool's go-to
2–1
BUT
Most common result
1–1
2–1 was picked 405 times across the pool. Reality's most common scoreline? A 1–1 draw — seven times in 29 games.
Pool called goals right — just not winners
Pool: Over 2.5
50%
=
Reality: Over 2.5
48%
The pool reads goal totals almost perfectly. It's overrating the winner that keeps costing us.
By the numbers
100%
backed Spain — and nobody got it
The pool's biggest trap. All 97 players picked Spain to beat Cape Verde. Final score: 0–0. A clean zero on the result for every single person.
34%
of games ended in a draw
Ten of 29 matches. The draw is the tournament's great leveller — and the biggest killer of chalk picks.
52%
of result picks landed
Just over half of all 1X2 calls were correct. When 79% of the pool back the same team every game, a 52% hit rate stings.
8%
of picks nailed the exact score
2,670 predictions made across the pool. Only 1 in 12 got the exact scoreline — the hardest part of the game.
3.14
goals per game
91 goals across 29 games. Germany's 7–1 win over Curaçao has done a lot of the heavy lifting on that average.
7–1
Germany · highest scoring game
8 goals in Germany vs Curaçao — a rare night the brave Over-pickers were very well rewarded.
The race
Leader
Mark Camilleri
174 pts
5th place · the money line
Willi Barbara
154 pts
Pool average
97 players
124 pts
Players within 10 pts of 5th
Still in the fight
9
Favourite = the team most of the pool backed to win that match.
Data through Matchday 1 + 5 games of Matchday 2 · 29 games · 97 players.